Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olympique Khouribga vs Olympique Dcheïra — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
9/17/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Khouribga39%
×Draw30%
Olympique Dcheïra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.14
Olympique Dcheïra
0.98

Olympique Khouribga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
Olympique Dcheïra
1.13

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
Olympique Dcheïra
1.17

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
69%
Olympique Khouribga or Olympique Dcheïra
70%
Draw or Olympique Dcheïra
61%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
16%
Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
68%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
11%
Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
62%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
56%
Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.13 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
39%
level
30%
Olympique Dcheïra scores more
31%

Olympique Khouribga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Olympique Khouribga 1–1 Olympique Dcheïra

Olympique Khouribga and Olympique Dcheïra drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.