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Olympique Dcheïra vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
5/10/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Ahmed Fana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra49%
×Draw27%
Olympique Khouribga24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.39
Olympique Khouribga
0.89

Olympique Dcheïra creates 56% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.44
Olympique Khouribga
1.00

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.78
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
76%
Olympique Dcheïra or Olympique Khouribga
73%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
51%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
23%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
75%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
40%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
16%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
59%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
22%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
67%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
49%
level
27%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
24%

Olympique Dcheïra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Olympique Dcheïra 3–2 Olympique Khouribga

Olympique Dcheïra beat Olympique Khouribga 3-2 in Botola 2 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Fana in Dcheïra El Jihadia.