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Olympique Khouribga vs Mouloudia Oujda — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujdaadvanced
5/15/2024CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Khouribga53%
×Draw30%
Mouloudia Oujda17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.25
Mouloudia Oujda
0.58

Olympique Khouribga creates 116% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
Mouloudia Oujda
0.33

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
Mouloudia Oujda
1.33

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Mouloudia Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
83%
Olympique Khouribga or Mouloudia Oujda
70%
Draw or Mouloudia Oujda
47%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
25%
Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
71%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
36%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
13%
Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
44%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
12%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
75%
Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Mouloudia Oujda away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mouloudia Oujda attack 0.33 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
53%
level
30%
Mouloudia Oujda scores more
17%

Olympique Khouribga at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Olympique Khouribga 0–1 Mouloudia Oujda

Mouloudia Oujda beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Cup on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.