Mouloudia Oujda 2–1 Olympique Khouribga

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique Khouribga

11/3/2024

Botola 2 · Round 5Stade Angad Lazaret

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda42%

×Draw29%

Olympique Khouribga29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.95

Mouloudia Oujda

1.22

Olympique Khouribga

0.95

Mouloudia Oujda creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

0.90

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.10

Olympique Khouribga

1.00

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

0.90

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

71%

Mouloudia Oujda or Olympique Khouribga

71%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

58%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

19%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

70%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

34%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

12%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

61%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

25%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

60%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

42%

level

29%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

29%

Mouloudia Oujda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff