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Olympique Khouribga vs Difaa EL Jadida — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribgaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
3/28/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olympique Khouribga38%
×Draw27%
Difaa EL Jadida35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.28
Difaa EL Jadida
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
Difaa EL Jadida
1.60

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
Difaa EL Jadida
1.40

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
65%
Olympique Khouribga or Difaa EL Jadida
73%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
62%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
17%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
72%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
37%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
14%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
70%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
34%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
52%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.60 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
38%
level
27%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
35%

Olympique Khouribga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Olympique Khouribga 2–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Olympique Khouribga beat Difaa EL Jadida 2-1 in Cup on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.