Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Olympique Khouribga vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
11/12/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olympique Khouribga35%
×Draw34%
Difaa EL Jadida31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
0.89
Difaa EL Jadida
0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
Difaa EL Jadida
0.80

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
Difaa EL Jadida
0.67

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
69%
Olympique Khouribga or Difaa EL Jadida
66%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
65%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
12%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
59%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
22%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
6%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
56%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
20%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
53%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
35%
level
34%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
31%

Olympique Khouribga at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Difaa EL Jadida

Olympique Khouribga beat Difaa EL Jadida 1-0 in Botola 2 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.