Olympique Khouribga 2–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Olympique Khouribga

FT

2 – 1

Chabab RIF Hoceima

9/23/2018

Botola Pro · Round 3Stade du Phosphate (Khouribga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olympique Khouribga54%

×Draw25%

Chabab RIF Hoceima21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique KhouribgaExpected goals in this matchChabab RIF Hoceima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.88

Olympique Khouribga

1.58

Chabab RIF Hoceima

0.88

Olympique Khouribga creates 80% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.23

creates per match

0.53

1.22

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.23

Chabab RIF Hoceima

0.53

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.22

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw

79%

Olympique Khouribga or Chabab RIF Hoceima

75%

Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima

46%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

28%

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

79%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

47%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

21%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

59%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

22%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

72%

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more

54%

level

25%

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

21%

Olympique Khouribga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff