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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
3 – 1
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
2/16/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 18Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima40%
×Draw27%
Olympique Khouribga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.30
Olympique Khouribga
1.15

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
67%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Olympique Khouribga
73%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
60%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
18%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
73%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
37%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
14%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
68%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
32%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
55%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
40%
level
27%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3 – 1 Olympique Khouribga

Chabab RIF Hoceima beat Olympique Khouribga 3-1 in Botola Pro on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima).