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Olympique Khouribga vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola Pro 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
9/4/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 1Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga44%
×Draw29%
Chabab Mohammédia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.25
Chabab Mohammédia
0.93

Olympique Khouribga creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.23
Chabab Mohammédia
0.63

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.22
Chabab Mohammédia
1.28

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
72%
Olympique Khouribga or Chabab Mohammédia
71%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
56%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
20%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
71%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
36%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
13%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
61%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
24%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
61%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
44%
level
29%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
28%

Olympique Khouribga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs Chabab Mohammédia

Chabab Mohammédia beat Olympique Khouribga 1-0 in Botola Pro on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.