Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga

Chabab Mohammédia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Olympique Khouribga

1/29/2023

Botola Pro · Round 16Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia35%

×Draw29%

Olympique Khouribga36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab MohammédiaExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.13

Chabab Mohammédia

1.10

Olympique Khouribga

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

0.87

creates per match

0.82

1.44

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia

0.87

Olympique Khouribga

0.82

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia

1.44

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw

64%

Chabab Mohammédia or Olympique Khouribga

71%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

65%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

14%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

67%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

30%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

10%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

68%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

31%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

49%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

35%

level

29%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

36%

Olympique Khouribga at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff