Olympique de Genève vs Chênois

Olympique de Genève

CANC

14:00

Chênois

5/29/2021

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Centre sportif de Varembé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olympique de Genève37%

×Draw24%

Chênois39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique de GenèveExpected goals in this matchChênois

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.54

Olympique de Genève

1.49

Chênois

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 86 away

1.38

creates per match

1.55

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Olympique de Genève

1.38

Chênois

1.55

allows per match

Olympique de Genève

1.54

Chênois

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Genève ↓

Chênois →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Olympique de Genève or draw

61%

Olympique de Genève or Chênois

76%

Draw or Chênois

63%

Winning margin

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+

17%

Chênois wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals

77%

Olympique de Genève 2+ goals

44%

Olympique de Genève 3+ goals

19%

Chênois 1+ goals

79%

Chênois 2+ goals

45%

Chênois 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)

49%

Chênois (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Genève at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Genève attack 1.38 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Chênois attack 1.55 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Olympique de Genève scores more

37%

level

24%

Chênois scores more

39%

Chênois at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff