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Chênois vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Chênois
Chênois
FT
2 – 0
Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
6/26/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stade des Trois-Chênes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chênois61%
×Draw22%
Olympique de Genève17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chênois
1.87
Olympique de Genève
0.87

Chênois creates 115% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chênois
1.87
Olympique de Genève
0.43

allows per match

Chênois
1.31
Olympique de Genève
1.86

finishing

Chênois+0.00on par
Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chênois ↓

Olympique de Genève →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chênois or draw
83%
Chênois or Olympique de Genève
78%
Draw or Olympique de Genève
39%

Winning margin

Chênois wins by 2+
36%
Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chênois 1+ goals
85%
Chênois 2+ goals
56%
Chênois 3+ goals
29%
Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
58%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
22%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chênois (draw refunded)
78%
Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chênois at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chênois attack 1.87 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Chênois defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chênois scores more
61%
level
22%
Olympique de Genève scores more
17%

Chênois at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Chênois 2–0 Olympique de Genève

Chênois beat Olympique de Genève 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Trois-Chênes in Chêne-Bourg.