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Olympique de Genève vs Bulle — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
CANC
15:00
Bulle
Bulle
5/2/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Centre sportif de Varembé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olympique de Genève24%
×Draw22%
Bulle54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique de Genève
1.30
Bulle
2.02

Bulle creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Olympique de Genève
1.38
Bulle
2.50

allows per match

Olympique de Genève
1.54
Bulle
1.23

finishing

Olympique de Genève+0.00on par
Bulle+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique de Genève ↓

Bulle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Olympique de Genève or draw
46%
Olympique de Genève or Bulle
78%
Draw or Bulle
76%

Winning margin

Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
10%
Bulle wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
73%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
37%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
14%
Bulle 1+ goals
87%
Bulle 2+ goals
60%
Bulle 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
31%
Bulle (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique de Genève at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Bulle away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique de Genève attack 1.38 + Bulle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bulle attack 2.50 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olympique de Genève scores more
24%
level
22%
Bulle scores more
54%

Bulle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Olympique de Genève host Bulle

May 2, 2021: Olympique de Genève take on Bulle in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Olympique de Genève host Bulle at Centre sportif de Varembé.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.