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Bulle vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Bulle
Bulle
FT
5 – 0
Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
6/16/20211. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stade de Bouleyres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bulle69%
×Draw19%
Olympique de Genève12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulle
2.15
Olympique de Genève
0.77

Bulle creates 179% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bulle
2.44
Olympique de Genève
0.43

allows per match

Bulle
1.11
Olympique de Genève
1.86

finishing

Bulle+0.00on par
Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulle ↓

Olympique de Genève →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bulle or draw
88%
Bulle or Olympique de Genève
81%
Draw or Olympique de Genève
31%

Winning margin

Bulle wins by 2+
45%
Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bulle 1+ goals
88%
Bulle 2+ goals
63%
Bulle 3+ goals
36%
Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
54%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
18%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bulle (draw refunded)
85%
Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulle at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulle attack 2.44 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Bulle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bulle scores more
69%
level
19%
Olympique de Genève scores more
12%

Bulle at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulle vs Olympique de Genève

Bulle beat Olympique de Genève 5-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Bouleyres in Bulle.