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Olympique Dcheïra vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Cup 2020

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
2 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
3/9/2024CupCup · 4th RoundStade Mohand Zaait Trust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra58%
×Draw26%
Rapide Oued ZEM16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.50
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.63

Olympique Dcheïra creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
2.00
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.25

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.00
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
84%
Olympique Dcheïra or Rapide Oued ZEM
74%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
42%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
31%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
78%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
44%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
19%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
47%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
13%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
79%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 2.00 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.25 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
58%
level
26%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
16%

Olympique Dcheïra at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Olympique Dcheïra 2–0 Rapide Oued ZEM

Olympique Dcheïra beat Rapide Oued ZEM 2-0 in Cup on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mohand Zaait Trust in Inezgane.