Olympique Dcheïra 2–2 Rapide Oued ZEM

Olympique Dcheïra

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rapide Oued ZEM

9/24/2022

Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Mohand Zaait Trust

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra47%

×Draw29%

Rapide Oued ZEM24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique DcheïraExpected goals in this matchRapide Oued ZEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.84

Olympique Dcheïra

1.28

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.84

Olympique Dcheïra creates 52% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.44

creates per match

0.91

0.78

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra

1.44

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.91

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra

0.78

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw

76%

Olympique Dcheïra or Rapide Oued ZEM

71%

Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM

53%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

21%

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

72%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

37%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

14%

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

57%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

21%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

66%

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

47%

level

29%

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

24%

Olympique Dcheïra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff