Olympique Dcheïra 0–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Olympique Dcheïra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Difaa EL Jadida

1/24/2026

Botola Pro · Round 9Stade Adrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra32%

×Draw28%

Difaa EL Jadida41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique DcheïraExpected goals in this matchDifaa EL Jadida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.28

Olympique Dcheïra

1.10

Difaa EL Jadida

1.28

Difaa EL Jadida creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 105 away

0.69

creates per match

1.00

1.56

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra

0.69

Difaa EL Jadida

1.00

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra

1.56

Difaa EL Jadida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw

59%

Olympique Dcheïra or Difaa EL Jadida

72%

Draw or Difaa EL Jadida

68%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

13%

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

67%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

30%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

10%

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

72%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

37%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

44%

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 0.69 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.10

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

32%

level

28%

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

41%

Difaa EL Jadida at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff