Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Difaa EL Jadida vs Olympique Dcheïra — Botola 2 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
12/17/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida45%
×Draw29%
Olympique Dcheïra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.28
Olympique Dcheïra
0.90

Difaa EL Jadida creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.40
Olympique Dcheïra
1.13

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.67
Olympique Dcheïra
1.17

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
74%
Difaa EL Jadida or Olympique Dcheïra
71%
Draw or Olympique Dcheïra
55%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
21%
Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
72%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
37%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
14%
Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
59%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
63%
Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.40 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.13 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
45%
level
29%
Olympique Dcheïra scores more
26%

Difaa EL Jadida at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Olympique Dcheïra

Difaa EL Jadida beat Olympique Dcheïra 2-1 in Botola 2 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.