Olympique Dcheïra 0–0 Chabab Ben Guerir

Olympique Dcheïra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chabab Ben Guerir

1/12/2025

Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Ahmed Fana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra49%

×Draw28%

Chabab Ben Guerir23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique DcheïraExpected goals in this matchChabab Ben Guerir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.80

Olympique Dcheïra

1.32

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.80

Olympique Dcheïra creates 65% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 120 away

1.44

creates per match

0.83

0.78

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra

1.44

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.83

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra

0.78

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw

77%

Olympique Dcheïra or Chabab Ben Guerir

72%

Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir

51%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

23%

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

73%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

38%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

15%

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

55%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

19%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

68%

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

49%

level

28%

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

23%

Olympique Dcheïra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff