Chabab Ben Guerir 1–2 Olympique Dcheïra

Chabab Ben Guerir

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique Dcheïra

2/25/2024

Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir38%

×Draw31%

Olympique Dcheïra31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Ben GuerirExpected goals in this matchOlympique Dcheïra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.93

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.05

Olympique Dcheïra

0.93

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 13% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 105 away

0.93

creates per match

1.13

0.74

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.93

Olympique Dcheïra

1.13

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

0.74

Olympique Dcheïra

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw

69%

Chabab Ben Guerir or Olympique Dcheïra

69%

Draw or Olympique Dcheïra

62%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

15%

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

65%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

28%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

9%

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

61%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

24%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

55%

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.13 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

38%

level

31%

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

31%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff