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Olympique Akbou vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Akbou
Olympique Akbou
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
11/21/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Olympique Akbou46%
×Draw30%
ASO Chlef24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Akbou
1.21
ASO Chlef
0.80

Olympique Akbou creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

creates per match

Olympique Akbou
1.03
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

Olympique Akbou
0.67
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Akbou ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Akbou or draw
76%
Olympique Akbou or ASO Chlef
70%
Draw or ASO Chlef
54%

Winning margin

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+
20%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals
70%
Olympique Akbou 2+ goals
34%
Olympique Akbou 3+ goals
12%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
55%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
19%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)
65%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Akbou at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Akbou attack 1.03 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + Olympique Akbou defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olympique Akbou scores more
46%
level
30%
ASO Chlef scores more
24%

Olympique Akbou at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olympique Akbou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Akbou vs ASO Chlef

Olympique Akbou beat ASO Chlef 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 21, 2025.