ASO Chlef 1–0 Olympique Akbou: Result & Stats

ASO Chlef

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olympique Akbou

4/17/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 27Mohamed Boumezrag Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

ASO Chlef43%

×Draw31%

Olympique Akbou27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASO ChlefExpected goals in this matchOlympique Akbou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.83

ASO Chlef

1.14

Olympique Akbou

0.83

ASO Chlef creates 37% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 30 away

1.15

creates per match

0.90

0.77

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

ASO Chlef

1.15

Olympique Akbou

0.90

allows per match

ASO Chlef

0.77

Olympique Akbou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Olympique Akbou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

Olympique Akbou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw

73%

ASO Chlef or Olympique Akbou

69%

Draw or Olympique Akbou

57%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+

18%

Olympique Akbou wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals

68%

ASO Chlef 2+ goals

32%

ASO Chlef 3+ goals

11%

Olympique Akbou 1+ goals

56%

Olympique Akbou 2+ goals

20%

Olympique Akbou 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)

62%

Olympique Akbou (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

Olympique Akbou away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + Olympique Akbou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Olympique Akbou attack 0.90 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ASO Chlef scores more

43%

level

31%

Olympique Akbou scores more

27%

ASO Chlef at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff