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Olympie Březová vs Kladno — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kladno
Kladno
3/12/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 16UMT Sokolov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Olympie Březová30%
×Draw22%
Kladno48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympie Březová
1.54
Kladno
1.98

Kladno creates 29% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 55 away

creates per match

Olympie Březová
1.79
Kladno
2.02

allows per match

Olympie Březová
1.94
Kladno
1.29

finishing

Olympie Březová+0.00on par
Kladno+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympie Březová ↓

Kladno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Olympie Březová or draw
52%
Olympie Březová or Kladno
78%
Draw or Kladno
70%

Winning margin

Olympie Březová wins by 2+
14%
Kladno wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Olympie Březová 1+ goals
79%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
45%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
20%
Kladno 1+ goals
86%
Kladno 2+ goals
59%
Kladno 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
39%
Kladno (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympie Březová at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.94 · 80 matches

Kladno away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympie Březová attack 1.79 + Kladno defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kladno attack 2.02 + Olympie Březová defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Olympie Březová scores more
30%
level
22%
Kladno scores more
48%

Kladno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympie Březová vs Kladno

Olympie Březová and Kladno drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at UMT Sokolov in Sokolov.