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Kladno vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Kladno
Kladno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
4/7/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 21Stadion Františka Kloze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Kladno65%
×Draw18%
Olympie Březová17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kladno
2.51
Olympie Březová
1.20

Kladno creates 109% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 84 away

creates per match

Kladno
2.71
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Kladno
1.02
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Kladno+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kladno ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kladno or draw
83%
Kladno or Olympie Březová
82%
Draw or Olympie Březová
35%

Winning margin

Kladno wins by 2+
44%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kladno 1+ goals
92%
Kladno 2+ goals
71%
Kladno 3+ goals
45%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
70%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
34%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kladno (draw refunded)
80%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kladno at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kladno attack 2.71 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.51

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Kladno defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kladno scores more
65%
level
18%
Olympie Březová scores more
17%

Kladno at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kladno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kladno vs Olympie Březová

Olympie Březová beat Kladno 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Františka Kloze in Kladno.