Olympie Březová 2–2 Brandýs nad Labem

Olympie Březová

FT

2 – 2

Brandýs nad Labem

10/23/2021

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 13Stadion TJ Olympie Březová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Olympie Březová43%

×Draw22%

Brandýs nad Labem35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympie BřezováExpected goals in this matchBrandýs nad Labem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.67

Olympie Březová

1.85

Brandýs nad Labem

1.67

Olympie Březová creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 37 away

1.79

creates per match

1.41

1.94

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Olympie Březová

1.79

Brandýs nad Labem

1.41

allows per match

Olympie Březová

1.94

Brandýs nad Labem

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympie Březová ↓

Brandýs nad Labem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Olympie Březová or draw

65%

Olympie Březová or Brandýs nad Labem

78%

Draw or Brandýs nad Labem

57%

Winning margin

Olympie Březová wins by 2+

23%

Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Olympie Březová 1+ goals

84%

Olympie Březová 2+ goals

55%

Olympie Březová 3+ goals

28%

Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals

81%

Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals

50%

Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Olympie Březová (draw refunded)

55%

Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympie Březová at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.94 · 80 matches

Brandýs nad Labem away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.92 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympie Březová attack 1.79 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.85

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.41 + Olympie Březová defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympie Březová scores more

43%

level

22%

Brandýs nad Labem scores more

35%

Olympie Březová at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff