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Brandýs nad Labem vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Brandýs nad Labem
Brandýs nad Labem
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
11/4/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Brandýs nad Labem UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brandýs nad Labem52%
×Draw21%
Olympie Březová27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brandýs nad Labem
2.14
Olympie Březová
1.48

Brandýs nad Labem creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.97
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Brandýs nad Labem
1.58
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Brandýs nad Labem+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brandýs nad Labem ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brandýs nad Labem or draw
73%
Brandýs nad Labem or Olympie Březová
79%
Draw or Olympie Březová
48%

Winning margin

Brandýs nad Labem wins by 2+
31%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brandýs nad Labem 1+ goals
88%
Brandýs nad Labem 2+ goals
63%
Brandýs nad Labem 3+ goals
36%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
77%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
43%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brandýs nad Labem (draw refunded)
66%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brandýs nad Labem at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brandýs nad Labem attack 1.97 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.14

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Brandýs nad Labem defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brandýs nad Labem scores more
52%
level
21%
Olympie Březová scores more
27%

Brandýs nad Labem at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brandýs nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brandýs nad Labem vs Olympie Březová

Brandýs nad Labem beat Olympie Březová 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Brandýs nad Labem UMT in Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav.