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Olympic vs Hässleholms IF — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Olympic
Olympic
FT
2 – 1
Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
10/2/2021Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Östra Götaland - 27Lindängens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olympic44%
×Draw26%
Hässleholms IF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.48
Hässleholms IF
1.20

Olympic creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 72 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.86
Hässleholms IF
1.82

allows per match

Olympic
0.57
Hässleholms IF
1.10

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Hässleholms IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
69%
Olympic or Hässleholms IF
74%
Draw or Hässleholms IF
56%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
21%
Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
77%
Olympic 2+ goals
43%
Olympic 3+ goals
19%
Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
70%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
34%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
59%
Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.86 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hässleholms IF attack 1.82 + Olympic defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympic scores more
44%
level
26%
Hässleholms IF scores more
31%

Olympic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Olympic 2–1 Hässleholms IF

Olympic beat Hässleholms IF 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Lindängens IP in Malmö.