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Hässleholms IF vs Olympic — Ettan - Södra 2019

Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Olympic
Olympic
4/17/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 3Osteras IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hässleholms IF45%
×Draw25%
Olympic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hässleholms IF
1.60
Olympic
1.26

Hässleholms IF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 67 away

creates per match

Hässleholms IF
1.59
Olympic
1.43

allows per match

Hässleholms IF
1.09
Olympic
1.60

finishing

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hässleholms IF ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hässleholms IF or draw
70%
Hässleholms IF or Olympic
75%
Draw or Olympic
55%

Winning margin

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
23%
Olympic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
80%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
47%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
22%
Olympic 1+ goals
72%
Olympic 2+ goals
36%
Olympic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
60%
Olympic (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hässleholms IF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.60 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hässleholms IF attack 1.59 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olympic attack 1.43 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hässleholms IF scores more
45%
level
25%
Olympic scores more
30%

Hässleholms IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Hässleholms IF 4–0 Olympic

Hässleholms IF beat Olympic 4-0 in Ettan - Södra on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at Osteras IP in Hassleholm.