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Olympic vs Brisbane City — Queensland NPL 2019

Olympic
Olympic
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Brisbane City
Brisbane City
5/31/2026Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympic44%
×Draw23%
Brisbane City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.83
Brisbane City
1.58

Olympic creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 80 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.91
Brisbane City
2.02

allows per match

Olympic
1.15
Brisbane City
1.76

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Brisbane City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Brisbane City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
66%
Olympic or Brisbane City
77%
Draw or Brisbane City
56%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
24%
Brisbane City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
84%
Olympic 2+ goals
54%
Olympic 3+ goals
28%
Brisbane City 1+ goals
79%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
47%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
57%
Brisbane City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

Brisbane City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.91 + Brisbane City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

Brisbane City attack 2.02 + Olympic defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympic scores more
44%
level
23%
Brisbane City scores more
34%

Olympic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs Brisbane City

Brisbane City beat Olympic 3-2 in Queensland NPL on May 31, 2026.