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Brisbane City vs Olympic — Queensland NPL 2019

Brisbane City
Brisbane City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Olympic
Olympic
8/23/2025Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 22Imperial Corp Stadium 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Brisbane City34%
×Draw21%
Olympic45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane City
1.72
Olympic
2.00

Olympic creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 103 away

creates per match

Brisbane City
1.83
Olympic
2.01

allows per match

Brisbane City
1.99
Olympic
1.60

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw
55%
Brisbane City or Olympic
79%
Draw or Olympic
66%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+
17%
Olympic wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals
82%
Brisbane City 2+ goals
51%
Brisbane City 3+ goals
25%
Olympic 1+ goals
86%
Olympic 2+ goals
59%
Olympic 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)
43%
Olympic (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.99 · 81 matches

Olympic away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.83 + Olympic defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Olympic attack 2.01 + Brisbane City defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brisbane City scores more
34%
level
21%
Olympic scores more
45%

Olympic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Brisbane City 2–3 Olympic

Olympic beat Brisbane City 3-2 in Queensland NPL on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Imperial Corp Stadium 1 in Brisbane.