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Olympiakos vs Doxa — 1. Division 2019

Olympiakos
Olympiakos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Doxa
Doxa
L. Enoh 61'
1 T. Anaane 90+11' (pen)
N. Trujić 80'
5/19/20231. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 12Makareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympiakos41%
×Draw28%
Doxa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos
1.25
Doxa
1.04

Olympiakos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 87 away

creates per match

Olympiakos
0.97
Doxa
0.92

allows per match

Olympiakos
1.16
Doxa
1.54

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par
Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Doxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw
69%
Olympiakos or Doxa
72%
Draw or Doxa
59%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+
18%
Doxa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals
71%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
36%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
13%
Doxa 1+ goals
65%
Doxa 2+ goals
28%
Doxa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)
57%
Doxa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Doxa attack 0.92 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympiakos scores more
41%
level
28%
Doxa scores more
31%

Olympiakos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'
Petros Giakoumakis
-5'
Fiorin Durmishaj
38'
Christian Ilić
45+1'
Marios Pechlivanis
45'
Nikola Trujić
46'
V. Kyriakou← O. Koroma
50'
Marios Stylianou
59'
Ernest Asante
61'
L. Enoh
71'
M. Dimitriou← F. Durmishaj
71'
T. Anaane← D. Trajchevski
76'
B. Asamoah← C. Ilić
76'
Mesca← K. Adénon
78'
S. Hendriks← M. Christodoulou
78'
S. Kaiafas← P. Giakoumakis
80'
N. Trujić
90+9'
Thanasis Liasidis
90+11'
1 T. AnaanePenalty

Shots

7Olympiakos

Statistics

OlympiakosDoxa
Overview
7Total Shots22
1Corners7
20Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots22
2On Target5
3Off Target8
2Blocked9
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls17
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Olympiakos vs Doxa

Doxa beat Olympiakos 2-1 in 1. Division on May 19, 2023.

Goals: L. Enoh (61'), N. Trujić (80'), 1 T. Anaane (90+11' pen).

The match was played at Makareio Stadio in Lefkosía.