Olympiakos 2–2 Doxa: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Olympiakos

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Doxa

D. Guerrier 82' (pen), 39'

A. Sobczyk 45+1'

B. Sadik 43'

11/6/2022

1. Division · Round 10Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Olympiakos41%

×Draw28%

Doxa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlympiakosExpected goals in this matchDoxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Olympiakos

1.25

Doxa

1.04

Olympiakos creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 87 away

0.97

creates per match

0.92

1.16

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Olympiakos

0.97

Doxa

0.92

allows per match

Olympiakos

1.16

Doxa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos+0.00on par

Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos ↓

Doxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Olympiakos or draw

69%

Olympiakos or Doxa

72%

Draw or Doxa

59%

Winning margin

Olympiakos wins by 2+

18%

Doxa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olympiakos 1+ goals

71%

Olympiakos 2+ goals

36%

Olympiakos 3+ goals

13%

Doxa 1+ goals

65%

Doxa 2+ goals

28%

Doxa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos (draw refunded)

57%

Doxa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos attack 0.97 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Doxa attack 0.92 + Olympiakos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olympiakos scores more

41%

level

28%

Doxa scores more

31%

Olympiakos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

D. Guerrier

43'

B. Sadik

45+1'

A. Sobczyk

46'

S. Marković← Nani Soares

46'

P. Psychas← T. Ioannou

46'

M. Šlogar← M. Pechlivanis

49'

Martin Slogar

53'

O. Koroma← F. Kah

56'

Theodoros Iosifidis

58'

Mesca

59'

D. Trajchevski← T. Iosifidis

69'

B. Asamoah← A. Sobczyk

74'

Bojan Kovačević

75'

J. Désiré← S. Hendriks

77'

T. Anaane← Mesca

77'

F. Abdullahi← C. Ilić

82'

D. GuerrierPenalty

89'

Evangelos Kyriakou

Shots

Statistics

OlympiakosDoxa

Overview

14Total Shots12

2Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target8

6Off Target4

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0