Olympiakos Piraeus 5–1 F91 Dudelange

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.38

Olympiakos Piraeus

2.02

F91 Dudelange

1.38

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 46% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.44

creates per match

1.20

1.56

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.44

F91 Dudelange

1.20

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.56

F91 Dudelange

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

74%

Olympiakos Piraeus or F91 Dudelange

78%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

48%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

30%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

87%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

60%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

33%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

75%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

40%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

67%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.44 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

F91 Dudelange attack 1.20 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

52%

level

22%

F91 Dudelange scores more

26%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Fortounis

Olympiakos Piraeus · M

9.2

Match Events

6'

V. Torosidis↳ M. Camara

15'

K. Fortounis↳ K. Tsimikas

26'

L. Christodoulopoulos↳ K. Fortounis

27'

David Turpel

34'

I. Fetfatzidis← Nahuel Leiva

36'

K. Fortounis↳ Daniel Podence

48'

48'

57'

60'

62'

69'

D. Sinani↳ E. Jordanov

70'

Koka↳ I. Fetfatzidis

74'

N. Perez← D. Turpel

85'

P. Stumpf← D. Stolz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlympiakosF91

Overview

55%Possession45%

24Total Shots5

11Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots5

14On Target3

4Off Target0

6Blocked2

17Inside Box0

7Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

581Total Passes461

522Accurate Passes394

90%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1