F91 Dudelange 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus

F91 Dudelange

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Olympiakos Piraeus

E. Jordanov 81' (OG)

V. Torosidis 66'

10/25/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

F91 Dudelange29%

×Draw26%

Olympiakos Piraeus45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.50

F91 Dudelange

1.14

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.50

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

1.00

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.00

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

2.00

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

55%

F91 Dudelange or Olympiakos Piraeus

74%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

71%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

11%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

68%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

32%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

11%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

78%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

44%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

39%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 1.00 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.00 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

29%

level

26%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

45%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

V. Torosidis

Olympiakos Piraeus · D

8.6

Match Events

18'

L. Christodoulopoulos← Guerrero

35'

51'

56'

65'

66'

V. Torosidis↳ K. Fortounis

69'

O. Elabdellaoui← V. Torosidis

73'

Lazaros Christodoulopoulos

74'

L. Kenia← A. El Hriti

78'

B. Natcho← Nahuel Leiva

81'

E. JordanovOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

F91Olympiakos

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots25

5Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots25

1On Target11

4Off Target9

3Blocked5

3Inside Box15

5Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

480Total Passes535

410Accurate Passes480

85%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

10Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0