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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Gil Dias 40'
Koka 9'
B. Verbič 89'
V. Buyalskyy 27'
2/14/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsGeorgios Karaiskakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus40%
×Draw24%
Dynamo Kyiv36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.44
Dynamo Kyiv
1.38

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.56
Dynamo Kyiv
1.69

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw
64%
Olympiakos Piraeus or Dynamo Kyiv
76%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
60%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
20%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
79%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
46%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
21%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
43%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
53%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.44 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.38 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
40%
level
24%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
36%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
Gil DiasOlympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus · M
7.4

Match Events

9'
Koka↳ K. Fortounis
27'
V. Buyalskyy↳ T. Kędziora
32'
Mohamed Mady Camara
40'
Gil Dias
58'
Daniel Podence
69'
B. Natcho← K. Fortounis
74'
Benjamin Verbič
81'
L. Christodoulopoulos← Daniel Podence
82'
D. Harmash← M. Shaparenko
82'
N. Rusyn← Fran Sol
86'
G. Masouras← Gil Dias
89'
B. Verbič↳ V. Tsygankov
90'
Tomasz Kędziora

Possession

40%Olympiakos

Shots

8Olympiakos

Pass accuracy

49%Olympiakos

Statistics

OlympiakosDynamo
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots8
0Corners2
12Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots8
4On Target4
3Off Target2
1Blocked2
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
419Total Passes608
329Accurate Passes504
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Dynamo Kyiv

Olympiakos Piraeus and Dynamo Kyiv drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on February 14, 2019.

Goals: Koka (9'), V. Buyalskyy (27'), Gil Dias (40'), B. Verbič (89').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (60%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Georgios Karaiskakis in Piraeus.