Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olympiakos Piraeus

Fran Sol 32'

2/21/2019

UEFA Europa League · 16th FinalsNSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv32%

×Draw30%

Olympiakos Piraeus38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.10

Dynamo Kyiv

1.00

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.10

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.73

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.73

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.00

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.20

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

62%

Dynamo Kyiv or Olympiakos Piraeus

70%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

68%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

12%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

63%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

26%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

8%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

67%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

30%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

46%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.73 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

32%

level

30%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

38%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

D. Boyko

Dynamo Kyiv · G

8.4

Match Events

22'

Benjamin Verbič

22'

Pape Abou Cissé

23'

Tomasz Kędziora

32'

Fran Sol↳ V. Mykolenko

45'

Daniel Podence

46'

G. Masouras← Gil Dias

65'

B. Natcho← A. Bouchalakis

65'

Guerrero← K. Fortounis

66'

Miguel Ángel Guerrero

76'

D. Harmash← M. Shaparenko

79'

Volodymyr Shepeliev

84'

Vasilīs Torosidīs

90+2'

N. Rusyn← Fran Sol

90+2'

Y. Smyrnyi← B. Verbič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoOlympiakos

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots9

5Corners5

17Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots9

5On Target5

3Off Target3

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

398Total Passes465

296Accurate Passes371

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0