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Olympiakos Piraeus vs Antwerp — UEFA Europa League 2026

Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Antwerp
Antwerp
O. Reabciuk 87'
Y. El-Arabi 52'
M. Samatta 74'
9/16/2021UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group D - 1Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus43%
×Draw23%
Antwerp35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.80
Antwerp
1.60

Olympiakos Piraeus creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.50
Antwerp
1.56

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus
1.64
Antwerp
2.11

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par
Antwerp+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

Antwerp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw
65%
Olympiakos Piraeus or Antwerp
77%
Draw or Antwerp
57%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
23%
Antwerp wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
83%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
54%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
27%
Antwerp 1+ goals
80%
Antwerp 2+ goals
47%
Antwerp 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
55%
Antwerp (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.50 + Antwerp defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Antwerp attack 1.56 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
43%
level
23%
Antwerp scores more
35%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Mohamed CamaraOlympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus · F
7.9

Match Events

4'
Birger Verstraete
39'
Youssef El ArabiGoal confirmed
39'
Youssef El ArabiGoal confirmed
49'
Pape Abou Cissé
52'
Jelle Bataille
52'
Y. El-Arabi↳ Mohamed Camara
67'
Aguibou Camara
67'
P. Gerkens← R. Nainggolan
67'
B. Manuel← K. Miyoshi
74'
M. Samatta↳ B. Manuel
76'
M. Valbuena← Y. MVila
80'
J. Eggestein← M. Frey
81'
P. Malong← Mohamed Camara
81'
Tiquinho Soares← H. Onyekuru
81'
M. Vrousai← A. Camara
87'
O. Reabciuk↳ M. Vrousai
88'
O. Ba← Y. El-Arabi
90+1'
Pieter Gerkens
90'
Jelle Bataille
90'
Jelle Bataille

Possession

46%Olympiakos

Shots

12Olympiakos

Pass accuracy

48%Olympiakos

Statistics

OlympiakosAntwerp
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots17
4Corners8
10Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots17
4On Target1
4Off Target12
4Blocked4
10Inside Box10
2Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
355Total Passes416
278Accurate Passes348
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Antwerp

Olympiakos Piraeus beat Antwerp 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on September 16, 2021.

Goals: Y. El-Arabi (52'), M. Samatta (74'), O. Reabciuk (87').

Antwerp controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Piraeus.