Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Antwerp vs Olympiakos Piraeus — UEFA Europa League 2026

Antwerp
Antwerp
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
M. Balikwisha 6'
12/9/2021UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group D - 6Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Antwerp38%
×Draw28%
Olympiakos Piraeus34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antwerp
1.20
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Antwerp
1.13
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.00

allows per match

Antwerp
1.25
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.27

finishing

Antwerp+0.00on par
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw
66%
Antwerp or Olympiakos Piraeus
72%
Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus
62%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+
16%
Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals
70%
Antwerp 2+ goals
34%
Antwerp 3+ goals
12%
Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
68%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
31%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)
52%
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.13 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.00 + Antwerp defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Antwerp scores more
38%
level
28%
Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
34%

Antwerp at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. VaclíkOlympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus · G
8.0

Match Events

6'
M. Balikwisha↳ B. Manuel
38'
Tiquinho Soares
46'
G. Masouras← Rony Lopes
46'
A. Camara← A. Bouchalakis
46'
Y. El-Arabi← Tiquinho Soares
57'
B. Engels← D. Dessoleil
57'
R. Quirynen← R. De Laet
60'
M. Vrousai← H. Onyekuru
66'
T. Androutsos← K. Lala
73'
M. Samatta← B. Manuel
73'
M. Frey← J. Eggestein
87'
A. Yusuf← M. Balikwisha
90+3'
Pape Abou Cissé

Possession

45%Antwerp

Shots

11Antwerp

Pass accuracy

49%Antwerp

Statistics

AntwerpOlympiakos
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots10
8Corners5
8Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots10
8On Target4
3Off Target5
0Blocked1
8Inside Box2
3Outside Box8
Passing
45%Possession55%
382Total Passes469
299Accurate Passes377
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
8Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Antwerp vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Antwerp beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on December 9, 2021.

Goals: M. Balikwisha (6').

Olympiakos Piraeus controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bosuilstadion in Deurne.