Olympiakos Piraeus 3–1 AC Milan: Result & Stats

Olympiakos Piraeus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AC Milan

K. Fortounis 81' (pen)

C. Zapata 69' (OG)

P. Cissé 60'

C. Zapata 71'

12/13/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6Georgios Karaiskakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus30%

×Draw25%

AC Milan44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos PiraeusExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.53

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.22

AC Milan

1.53

AC Milan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.44

creates per match

1.50

1.56

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.44

AC Milan

1.50

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.56

AC Milan

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus or draw

56%

Olympiakos Piraeus or AC Milan

75%

Draw or AC Milan

70%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

13%

AC Milan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

70%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

34%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

12%

AC Milan 1+ goals

78%

AC Milan 2+ goals

45%

AC Milan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

41%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.44 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

30%

level

25%

AC Milan scores more

44%

AC Milan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

José Sá

Olympiakos Piraeus · G

7.8

Match Events

13'

41'

42'

44'

54'

60'

69'

B. Natcho← I. Fetfatzidis

69'

C. ZapataOwn goal

71'

C. Zapata↳ H. Çalhanoğlu

73'

Mohamed Mady Camara

78'

D. Laxalt← P. Cutrone

79'

V. Torosidis← M. Camara

80'

Ignazio Abate

81'

K. FortounisPenalty

85'

A. Bouchalakis← Daniel Podence

85'

A. Halilović← R. Rodríguez

89'

Miguel Ángel Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlympiakosAC

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots18

8Corners9

15Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots18

9On Target8

6Off Target5

3Blocked5

11Inside Box12

7Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

423Total Passes383

357Accurate Passes314

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2