AC Milan 3–1 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

AC Milan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olympiakos Piraeus

10/4/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AC Milan48%

×Draw24%

Olympiakos Piraeus28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.28

AC Milan

1.75

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.28

AC Milan creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

2.22

creates per match

1.00

1.56

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

AC Milan

2.22

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.00

allows per match

AC Milan

1.56

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

72%

AC Milan or Olympiakos Piraeus

76%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

52%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

26%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

83%

AC Milan 2+ goals

52%

AC Milan 3+ goals

25%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

72%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

37%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

63%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 2.22 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.00 + AC Milan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Milan scores more

48%

level

24%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

28%

AC Milan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff