Olympiakos Piraeus U19 0–1 Crvena Zvezda U19

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crvena Zvezda U19

A. Radulović 41'

12/11/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Proponitiko Kentro Reti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olympiakos Piraeus U1960%

×Draw19%

Crvena Zvezda U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympiakos Piraeus U19Expected goals in this matchCrvena Zvezda U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.30

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

2.33

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.30

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.89

creates per match

1.38

1.22

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.89

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.38

allows per match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.22

Crvena Zvezda U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympiakos Piraeus U19+0.00on par

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or draw

79%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19

81%

Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19

40%

Winning margin

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 wins by 2+

38%

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 1+ goals

90%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2+ goals

67%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 3+ goals

41%

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

73%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

37%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 attack 1.89 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.33

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + Olympiakos Piraeus U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

21%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

A. Radulović

43'

M. Milikic

55'

K. Belic

62'

G. Neofytidis← K. Belic

68'

A. Tselios← E. Keramidas

68'

V. Sourlis← P. Katsavakis

77'

A. Lukic

81'

A. Voilis← G. Fekkas

81'

V. Ntotis← E. Bullari

83'

A. Ilic← A. Matić

83'

P. Piplića← A. Radulović

86'

N. Nikolis

87'

M. Lazetić← B. Burmaz

90+2'

S. Pešović← I. Babić

Olympiakos

Crvena

1

6

5

3

2

8

7

10

⚽

▼

Radulović

4

▼

Matić

9

▼

Burmaz

11

▼

28

11

4

12

3

▼

Keramidas

13

▼

Belic

18

▼

Fekkas

20

Liatsos

23

Nikolis

21

▼

Katsavaki

7

▼

Bullari

Manager: A. Nikopolidis

62'▲G. Neofytidis←▼K. Belic

68'▲A. Tselios←▼E. Keramidas

68'▲V. Sourlis←▼P. Katsavakis

81'▲A. Voilis←▼G. Fekkas

81'▲V. Ntotis←▼E. Bullari

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 substitutes

19Neofytidis6Tselios26Sourlis9Voilis27Ntotis14Aslanidis1Stournaras

Manager: S. Đorđević

83'▲A. Ilic←▼A. Matić

83'▲P. Piplića←▼A. Radulović

87'▲M. Lazetić←▼B. Burmaz

90+2'▲S. Pešović←▼I. Babić

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

14Ilic17Piplića18Lazetić13Pešović12Lukić16Dedijer15Savić