Crvena Zvezda U19 2–1 Olympiakos Piraeus U19

Crvena Zvezda U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

M. Pantović 83'

S. Mitrović 46'

C. Liatsos 28'

10/1/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Crvena Zvezda U1944%

×Draw26%

Olympiakos Piraeus U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda U19Expected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.20

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.48

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.20

Crvena Zvezda U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.33

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Olympiakos Piraeus U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda U19 ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda U19 or draw

69%

Crvena Zvezda U19 or Olympiakos Piraeus U19

74%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus U19

56%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

21%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

77%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

43%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

19%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 1+ goals

70%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 2+ goals

34%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.07 + Olympiakos Piraeus U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 attack 1.33 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

44%

level

26%

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 scores more

31%

Crvena Zvezda U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

C. Liatsos↳ P. Katsavakis

46'

S. Mitrović↳ B. Burmaz

66'

D. Arsenidis← P. Katsavakis

66'

K. Aslanidis← K. Belic

74'

M. Dedijer← P. Piplića

83'

M. Pantović↳ M. Novaković

85'

A. Sapountzis← P. Ntoumanis

85'

G. Syrmis← C. Liatsos

88'

A. Ilic← B. Burmaz

90+2'

V. Miletić← M. Novaković

Crvena

Olympiakos

28

11

4

19

13

▼

Belic

2

▼

Ntoumanis

20

⚽

▼

Liatsos

23

Nikolis

22

A

▼

7

26

1

6

5

3

2

⚽

Mitrović

8

A

▼

Novaković

7

⚽

Pantović

10

▼

Piplića

4

Matić

9

A

▼

Burmaz

11

Babić

Manager: S. Đorđević

74'▲M. Dedijer←▼P. Piplića

88'▲A. Ilic←▼B. Burmaz

90+2'▲V. Miletić←▼M. Novaković

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

17Dedijer14Ilic15Miletić13Pisar12Ćopić18Lazetić16Pešović

Manager: Ricardo Peres

66'▲D. Arsenidis←▼P. Katsavakis

66'▲K. Aslanidis←▼K. Belic

85'▲A. Sapountzis←▼P. Ntoumanis

85'▲G. Syrmis←▼C. Liatsos

Olympiakos Piraeus U19 substitutes

17Arsenidis14Aslanidis18Sapountzis25Syrmis12Tsavos1Stournaras3Keramidas