OLS 3–0 JS Hercules: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

OLS

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

JS Hercules

4/28/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundHeinäpään tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

OLS36%

×Draw20%

JS Hercules45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OLSExpected goals in this matchJS Hercules

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.35

OLS

2.10

JS Hercules

2.35

JS Hercules creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

3.00

1.71

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

OLS

1.71

JS Hercules

3.00

allows per match

OLS

1.71

JS Hercules

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OLS+0.00on par

JS Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

JS Hercules →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

OLS or draw

55%

OLS or JS Hercules

80%

Draw or JS Hercules

64%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+

19%

JS Hercules wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals

88%

OLS 2+ goals

62%

OLS 3+ goals

35%

JS Hercules 1+ goals

90%

JS Hercules 2+ goals

68%

JS Hercules 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)

44%

JS Hercules (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

JS Hercules away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 1.71 + JS Hercules defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

JS Hercules attack 3.00 + OLS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

OLS scores more

36%

level

20%

JS Hercules scores more

45%

JS Hercules at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JS Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff