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JS Hercules vs OLS — Suomen Cup 2018

JS Hercules
JS Hercules
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
OLS
OLS
E. Raittinen 67'
O. Parkkila 26'
A. Räisänen 23'
H. Karlsson 10'
4/17/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JS Hercules1%
×Draw4%
OLS95%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Hercules
0.42
OLS
4.21

OLS creates 902% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

JS Hercules
0.33
OLS
4.75

allows per match

JS Hercules
3.67
OLS
0.50

finishing

JS Hercules+0.00on par
OLS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Hercules ↓

OLS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–210%
0–314%
0–415%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (15%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
63%37%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

JS Hercules or draw
5%
JS Hercules or OLS
96%
Draw or OLS
99%

Winning margin

JS Hercules wins by 2+
0%
OLS wins by 2+
84%

Team goals

JS Hercules 1+ goals
34%
JS Hercules 2+ goals
7%
JS Hercules 3+ goals
1%
OLS 1+ goals
98%
OLS 2+ goals
91%
OLS 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

JS Hercules (draw refunded)
1%
OLS (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Hercules at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

OLS away — creates 4.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Hercules attack 0.33 + OLS defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

OLS attack 4.75 + JS Hercules defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 4.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

JS Hercules scores more
1%
level
4%
OLS scores more
95%

OLS at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
H. Karlsson
23'
A. Räisänen
26'
O. Parkkila
67'
E. Raittinen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Hercules vs OLS

OLS beat JS Hercules 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 17, 2024.

Goals: H. Karlsson (10'), A. Räisänen (23'), O. Parkkila (26'), E. Raittinen (67').

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.