Olot 2–1 Mollerussa: Result & Stats

Olot

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mollerussa

Marc Roquet 90+1'

Marc Mas 17'

Nil Sauret 23'

3/16/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot54%

×Draw24%

Mollerussa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchMollerussa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.95

Olot

1.66

Mollerussa

0.95

Olot creates 75% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

1.76

creates per match

1.04

0.85

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Mollerussa

1.04

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Mollerussa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Mollerussa →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Olot or draw

78%

Olot or Mollerussa

76%

Draw or Mollerussa

46%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

29%

Mollerussa wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

81%

Olot 2+ goals

49%

Olot 3+ goals

23%

Mollerussa 1+ goals

61%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

25%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

71%

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olot scores more

54%

level

24%

Mollerussa scores more

22%

Olot at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Marc Mas

23'

Nil Sauret

46'

Genís Soldevila← Jordi Bernat

46'

Joan Domingo← Putxi

62'

Pedro del Campo← Bruno Perone

69'

Pablo Ufano← Moha Chabboura

69'

Marco Gil← Albert Blázquez

77'

Marc Roquet← Arnau Forés

77'

Jofre Graells← Jordi Pedrós

90+2'

Albert Delgado← M. Sempé

90+1'

Marc Roquet

Olot

Mollerussa

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Dólera

62'▲Pedro del Campo←▼Bruno Perone

69'▲Pablo Ufano←▼Moha Chabboura

69'▲Marco Gil←▼Albert Blázquez

77'▲Marc Roquet←▼Arnau Forés

Olot substitutes

CampoUfanoGilRoquet

Manager: Jordi Cortés

46'▲Genís Soldevila←▼Jordi Bernat

46'▲Joan Domingo←▼Putxi

77'▲Jofre Graells←▼Jordi Pedrós

90+2'▲Albert Delgado←▼M. Sempé

Mollerussa substitutes

SoldevilaDomingoGraellsDelgado