Mollerussa 1–2 Olot: Result & Stats

Mollerussa

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Olot

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mollerussa29%

×Draw27%

Olot45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MollerussaExpected goals in this matchOlot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.41

Mollerussa

1.07

Olot

1.41

Olot creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

1.41

creates per match

1.52

1.29

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Mollerussa

1.41

Olot

1.52

allows per match

Mollerussa

1.29

Olot

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Olot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Olot →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw

55%

Mollerussa or Olot

73%

Draw or Olot

71%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+

11%

Olot wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals

66%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

29%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

Olot 1+ goals

76%

Olot 2+ goals

41%

Olot 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

39%

Olot (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Olot away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Olot defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.07

Olot attack 1.52 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mollerussa scores more

29%

level

27%

Olot scores more

45%

Olot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff