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Botafogo vs Ponte Preta — Serie A 2026

Botafogo
Botafogo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
11/26/2016Serie ASerie A · Round 37Estádio Ilha do Urubu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Botafogo40%
×Draw29%
Ponte Preta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo
1.21
Ponte Preta
1.02

Botafogo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 4 away

creates per match

Botafogo
1.43
Ponte Preta
1.00

allows per match

Botafogo
1.05
Ponte Preta
1.00

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par
Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Ponte Preta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw
69%
Botafogo or Ponte Preta
71%
Draw or Ponte Preta
60%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+
17%
Ponte Preta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals
70%
Botafogo 2+ goals
34%
Botafogo 3+ goals
12%
Ponte Preta 1+ goals
64%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
27%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)
57%
Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.05 · 129 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 1.43 + Ponte Preta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ponte Preta attack 1.00 + Botafogo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Botafogo scores more
40%
level
29%
Ponte Preta scores more
31%

Botafogo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botafogo vs Ponte Preta

Botafogo and Ponte Preta drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 26, 2016.

The match was played at Estádio Ilha do Urubu in Rio de Janeiro.