Botafogo 2–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ponte Preta

Rafael Moura 89'

Kevin 31' (OG)

8/8/2021

Serie B · Round 16Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botafogo59%

×Draw24%

Ponte Preta17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BotafogoExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.76

Botafogo

1.68

Ponte Preta

0.76

Botafogo creates 121% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 115 away

2.05

creates per match

0.83

0.68

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Botafogo

2.05

Ponte Preta

0.83

allows per match

Botafogo

0.68

Ponte Preta

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Botafogo or draw

83%

Botafogo or Ponte Preta

76%

Draw or Ponte Preta

41%

Winning margin

Botafogo wins by 2+

33%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Botafogo 1+ goals

81%

Botafogo 2+ goals

50%

Botafogo 3+ goals

24%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

53%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

18%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Botafogo (draw refunded)

78%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.31 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo attack 2.05 + Ponte Preta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ponte Preta attack 0.83 + Botafogo defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Botafogo scores more

59%

level

24%

Ponte Preta scores more

17%

Botafogo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Botafogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Diego

Botafogo · G

7.5

Match Events

31'

KevinOwn goal

56'

Barreto

62'

Rayan

65'

Leo← Vinícius

66'

João Veras← Josiel

73'

Niltinho← Richard Rodrigues

78'

Warley← Marco Antonio

78'

J. Carli← Gilvan

82'

Fessin← Camilo

82'

Jean Carlos← Felipe

84'

Rafael Moura← Chayene

84'

Luis Oyama← Rafael Navarro

89'

Rafael Moura↳ Warley

90'

Matheus Frizzo← Pedro Castro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoPonte

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots10

6Corners3

16Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots10

2On Target2

8Off Target6

3Blocked2

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

370Total Passes503

290Accurate Passes414

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls20

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0