Olmaliq 2–1 Surkhon: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Surkhon

M. Boakye 56'

A. Dzhalilov 6'

Rubén Sánchez 60'

8/29/2022

Super League · Round 17OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Olmaliq55%

×Draw24%

Surkhon22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.00

Olmaliq

1.74

Surkhon

1.00

Olmaliq creates 74% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

1.86

creates per match

0.84

1.17

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.86

Surkhon

0.84

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.17

Surkhon

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

78%

Olmaliq or Surkhon

76%

Draw or Surkhon

45%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

30%

Surkhon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

82%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

52%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

25%

Surkhon 1+ goals

63%

Surkhon 2+ goals

26%

Surkhon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

72%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 94 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.86 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Olmaliq defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Olmaliq scores more

55%

level

24%

Surkhon scores more

22%

Olmaliq at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Dzhalilov

14'

K. Saidazimov← J. Akhmadov

19'

B. Shaydulov

46'

I. Malikdzhonov

46'

Manel Martínez← B. Shaydulov

46'

Sergio Rodríguez← M. Bobojonov

51'

K. Saidazimov

56'

M. Boakye

60'

U. Abdullayev← K. Saidazimov

60'

Rubén Sánchez

62'

B. Ergashev

66'

A. Komilov← A. Dzhalilov

66'

S. Haghnazari← M. Kosimov

78'

D. Spătaru← M. Boakye

78'

M. Mirakhmadov← S. Gadoev

80'

I. Ganikhonov← A. Yusupov

83'

D. Spataru

90+3'

M. Hasanov← K. Giyosov

Olmaliq

Surkhon

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Boakye

Manager: M. Qosimov

66'▲A. Komilov←▼A. Dzhalilov

66'▲S. Haghnazari←▼M. Kosimov

78'▲D. Spătaru←▼M. Boakye

78'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼S. Gadoev

90+3'▲M. Hasanov←▼K. Giyosov

Olmaliq substitutes

KomilovHaghnazariSpătaruMirakhmadovHasanovFiliposyanBegimovRahimov

Manager: Ángel López

14'▲K. Saidazimov←▼J. Akhmadov

46'▲Manel Martínez←▼B. Shaydulov

46'▲Sergio Rodríguez←▼M. Bobojonov

60'▲U. Abdullayev←▼K. Saidazimov

80'▲I. Ganikhonov←▼A. Yusupov

Surkhon substitutes

SaidazimovMartínezRodríguezAbdullayevGanikhonovMerganovQuezadaChoriyevShobirov

Super League: Olmaliq 2–1 Surkhon

Olmaliq beat Surkhon 2-1 in Super League on August 29, 2022.

Goals: A. Dzhalilov (6'), M. Boakye (56'), Rubén Sánchez (60').

The match was played at OKMK Sport Majmuasi in Almalyk.

Olmaliq vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Olmaliq 2–1 Surkhon