Olmaliq 0–1 Sogdiana: Result & Stats | Super League

Olmaliq

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sogdiana

J. Kaxramonov 90+3' (pen)

11/27/2021

Super League · Round 26OKMK Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Olmaliq49%

×Draw25%

Sogdiana27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlmaliqExpected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Olmaliq

1.63

Sogdiana

1.14

Olmaliq creates 43% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 102 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

1.17

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Olmaliq

1.86

Sogdiana

1.10

allows per match

Olmaliq

1.17

Sogdiana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olmaliq ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olmaliq or draw

73%

Olmaliq or Sogdiana

75%

Draw or Sogdiana

51%

Winning margin

Olmaliq wins by 2+

26%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Olmaliq 1+ goals

80%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

48%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

22%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

68%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

32%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

65%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olmaliq at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 94 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olmaliq attack 1.86 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Olmaliq defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olmaliq scores more

49%

level

25%

Sogdiana scores more

27%

Olmaliq at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

J. Kakhramonov

50'

M. Kolakovic

56'

S. Rakhmanov

57'

J. Boltaboev

62'

E. Ismoilov← D. Stanojević

69'

D. Juraev← M. Kosimov

69'

M. Toshmatov← H. Gafurov

74'

B. Yuldashov← S. Rakhmanov

74'

M. Boakye← S. Shaakhmedov

79'

S. Rashidov← S. Norxonov

85'

M. Suleymanov← O. Kasyan

85'

B. Nasimov← J. Khasanov

90+2'

M. Sulaymonov

90+6'

A. Otakhonov

90+9'

M. Mitrovic

90+3'

J. KaxramonovPenalty

Olmaliq

Sogdiana

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Qosimov

69'▲D. Juraev←▼M. Kosimov

69'▲M. Toshmatov←▼H. Gafurov

74'▲B. Yuldashov←▼S. Rakhmanov

74'▲M. Boakye←▼S. Shaakhmedov

85'▲M. Suleymanov←▼O. Kasyan

Olmaliq substitutes

JuraevToshmatovYuldashovBoakyeSuleymanovErgashevAbdurazzoqovAbdug‘anievPolvonov

Manager: U. Bakaev

62'▲E. Ismoilov←▼D. Stanojević

79'▲S. Rashidov←▼S. Norxonov

85'▲B. Nasimov←▼J. Khasanov

Sogdiana substitutes

IsmoilovRashidovNasimovBegimkulovPirmatovOripovBozorovQo'yboqovAbdullayev